PREDIKSI PENJUALAN OBAT PADA RUMAH SAKIT MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EKSPONENTIAL SMOOTHING

  • Winda Yoceva Pane Universitas Prima Indonesia
  • Natahanel Chrisman Laurentio Pardede
  • Rikky Martua Hasudungan Simaremare
  • Evta Indra

Abstract

Royal Prima Hospital faces challenges in managing its drug inventory. Each month, the available quantity of drugs remains the same without considering the actual needs, based only on the amount of drugs sold. As a result, there is often an excess of drug stock, leading to reduced shelf life, lower drug prices, and unsatisfactory patient service. This situation is certainly detrimental to the hospital. To help hospital management reduce errors in forecasting drug sales, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method with an alpha of 0.6 was applied, as the sales data show a trend. This method provides a solution that can be used to predict the number of drugs that will be sold in both the short and long term with a high level of accuracy. The forecasting results produced a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 791.64, a Mean Square Error (MSE) of 17,887,289,511.31, and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.78%. Thus, hospital management can manage drug inventory more efficiently and reduce wastage. This study offers significant benefits by providing a more accurate approach to forecasting drug sales.

References

[1] N. Dyahariesti and R. Yuswantina, “Evaluasi Keefektifan Penggelolaan Obat di Rumah Sakit.”, Media Farmasi Indonesia, Vol. 14 No. 1 pp. 1485-1492, Maret 2019, e-ISSN 2655-1462.
[2] R. Capritasari and D. R. Kurniawati, “Analisis perencanaan dan pengadaan guna menjamin ketersediaan obat di rumah sakit,” Sasambo Journal of Pharmacy, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 32–36, Apr. 2021, doi: 10.29303/sjp.v2i1.71.
[3] “1338-2179-1-SM”.
[4] P. K. LUKITO, “PERATURAN BADAN PENGAWAS OBAT DAN MAKANAN NOMOR 18 TAHUN 2020 TENTANG PEDOMAN PENILAIAN OBAT BERBASIS SEL MANUSIA,” 2020. https://jdih.pom.go.id/download/product/1124/18/2020
[5] Y. Kurnia Hadi, M. Julian Syaputra, and D. Setiawan, “Peramalan Penjualan Obat Generik Melalui Time Series Forecasting Model Pada Perusahaan Farmasi di Tangerang: Studi Kasus,” JOURNAL INDUSTRIALENGINEERING&MANAGEMENT RESEARCH( JIEMAR), vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 2722–8878, Jul. 2020, doi: 10.7777/jiemar.v1i2.
[6] E. Listiawati and A. Dwi Yanti, “EDUKASI KONSUMSI OBAT-OBATAN YANG BERISIKO MENURUNKAN FUNGSI PENDENGARAN PADA LANSIA,” 2021. [Online]. Available: http://jurnal.globalhealthsciencegroup.com/index.php/JPM
[7] Slamet Riyadi, “APLIKASI PERAMALAN PENJUALAN OBAT MENGGUNAKAN METODE PEMULUSAN (STUDI KASUS: INSTALASI FARMASI RSUD DR MURJANI),” Feb. 2015.
[8] M. Rizki Nugroho and I. Edo Hendrawan, “Penerapan Algoritma K-Means Untuk Klasterisasi Data Obat Pada Rumah Sakit ASRI,” vol. 16, no. 1, 2022, [Online]. Available: https://journal.uniku.ac.id/index.php/ilkom
[9] A. Nurkholis and P. S. Oktora, “Sistem Persediaan Obat Menggunakan Metode Moving Average Dan Fixed Time Period With Safety Stock,” 2022.
[10] H. T. Hani, Dasar-dasar Manajemen Produksi dan Operasi. Yogyakarta: BPFE Yogyakarta, 1999.
[11] D. Harini and L. S. Wahyuniar, “Estimasi Jumlah Murid Baru Menggunakan Metode Forecasting,” Journal of Instructional Mathematics, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 64–70, Nov. 2021, doi: 10.37640/jim.v2i2.1025.
[12] H. Rahman, “Implementasi Metode Peramalan Forecasting… 147.”
[13] S. Alfarisi, “SISTEM PREDIKSI PENJUALAN GAMIS TOKO QITAZ MENGGUNAKAN METODE SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Oleh,” 2017.
[14] S. dkk Makridakis, Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan , Kedua. Jakarta: Erlangga, 2017.
[15] E. Sophia, J. Maknunah, M. Dimas Oktavianda, S. Pradnya, and P. Malang, “Sistem Informasi Peramalan Obat Alphamol Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing.”
[16] dkk, S. Makridakis, Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan, Kedua. Jakarta: Erlangga, 2017.
[17] “Rumah Sakit Royal Prima,” https://royalprima.com/.
[18] S. J, Teknik Sampling. Jakarta: Rineka Cipta, 2000.
[19] Harijono dan Sugiarto, Peramalan Bisnis. Jakarta: PT. Gramedia Pustaka Utama, 2000.
[20] G. dan M. N. Indriyo, Teknik Proyeksi Bisnis, Pertama. Yogyakarta: BPFE Yogyakarta, 2001.
[21] Dermawan Wibisono, Riset Bisnis. Yogyakarta: BPFE Yogyakarta, 2000.
Published
2024-06-30
How to Cite
PANE, Winda Yoceva et al. PREDIKSI PENJUALAN OBAT PADA RUMAH SAKIT MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EKSPONENTIAL SMOOTHING. Jurnal Tekinkom (Teknik Informasi dan Komputer), [S.l.], v. 7, n. 1, p. 410-418, june 2024. ISSN 2621-3079. Available at: <https://jurnal.murnisadar.ac.id/index.php/Tekinkom/article/view/1346>. Date accessed: 19 july 2024. doi: https://doi.org/10.37600/tekinkom.v7i1.1346.
Section
Articles